In the run-up to a potential 2024 presidential debate between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, political commentators and media elites were quick to predict how such a showdown would unfold. However, as the political landscape continues to shift and more insights come to light, it’s becoming increasingly clear that these so-called experts missed the mark. The elite’s misplaced assumptions have left many wondering why they got it so wrong.
The Expectations: Before diving into the why, it’s important to understand what the general expectations were. Political analysts and media personalities had widely assumed that a debate between Trump and Harris would be a lopsided affair. They anticipated that Harris, a seasoned debater with years of legal and political experience, would easily outwit Trump, who has often been criticized for his unorthodox debate style.
Many believed that Harris, known for her sharp prosecutorial skills, would exploit Trump’s weaknesses, particularly in areas like healthcare, racial justice, and foreign policy. Commentators pointed to Harris’ performance in the 2020 vice-presidential debate against former Vice President Mike Pence as evidence that she could hold her own in high-pressure situations.
The Clueless Elite Narrative: So why did elites get it so wrong? A big reason lies in their overconfidence in traditional political strategies and debate tactics. Elites tend to rely on a conventional understanding of politics, where polished rhetoric, clear policy outlines, and traditional debate decorum are valued above all else. However, Trump has repeatedly shown that he doesn’t play by these rules. His unconventional debate style, which mixes bluster with populist rhetoric, has resonated with a significant portion of the electorate.
The elites, who operate in an insular bubble of mainstream media and political circles, failed to grasp that Trump’s appeal isn’t necessarily rooted in his debate performance or policy expertise. Instead, his followers value his outsider status, his willingness to challenge the establishment, and his ability to connect with average Americans. As a result, the elite’s fixation on traditional debate standards blinded them to the reality of Trump’s enduring political appeal.
Trump’s Unpredictable Debate Style: Another reason the elites misjudged a potential Trump-Harris debate is Trump’s unpredictability. In previous debates, Trump demonstrated a knack for shifting the conversation to issues that he believes play in his favor, often catching opponents off guard. His ability to dominate a debate stage, even when under fire, has been one of his defining political strengths. While Harris is undoubtedly a skilled debater, she, like many others, could struggle to maintain control in an encounter with Trump’s unpredictable style.
In addition, Trump’s willingness to ignore debate norms and interrupt opponents is another factor that the elites underestimated. This tactic, while criticized by many, has been effective in preventing his debate opponents from delivering coherent and uninterrupted messages. Harris, who thrives in structured environments, may have been at a disadvantage if faced with Trump’s freewheeling style.
The Changing Political Dynamics: The political climate in the United States has changed significantly since Trump first took the debate stage in 2016. The rise of populism, the growing distrust in mainstream media, and the polarization of the electorate have all contributed to Trump’s continued relevance. Despite being out of office, Trump remains a major force in American politics, and any potential debate between him and Harris would be viewed through a very different lens than previous debates.
The elites, many of whom are disconnected from the concerns of average Americans, failed to account for this shifting political landscape. While they focused on Harris’ debate skills and policy positions, they overlooked the fact that Trump’s populist messaging and outsider status resonate deeply with many voters.
The Public’s Growing Distrust of Elites: The elites’ misjudgment of a potential Trump-Harris debate also highlights a broader issue: the growing distrust of elites among the American public. Over the past several years, there has been a growing sentiment that political pundits and media figures are out of touch with the realities facing everyday Americans. This distrust has fueled Trump’s rise and continues to shape the political conversation in the U.S.
Elites, who often operate in coastal cities and cater to a more affluent, educated demographic, have struggled to connect with the concerns of working-class Americans. Their inability to predict the outcomes of political events, such as the 2016 election and a potential Trump-Harris debate, has only reinforced this perception. As a result, many voters are turning away from the traditional media and political commentary and are seeking out alternative sources of information that align more closely with their views.
Conclusion: As the possibility of a Trump-Harris debate looms on the horizon, it’s clear that the elites got it wrong when they predicted how such an encounter would unfold. Their overconfidence in traditional debate tactics, their underestimation of Trump’s appeal, and their disconnection from the average American voter all contributed to their misjudgment. As political dynamics continue to evolve, it’s important for the media and political elites to reassess their assumptions and better understand the forces shaping American politics.
